....sucks. Again, its not about me not catching. It is concern about how the recruitment numbers will be for the 2023 year class of fish that call the Delaware River their natal waters. I am no Delaware River striped bass expert. But I am allowed to have an opinion, or a theory, since I spend a stupid about of time in, sometimes on, and near the river.
What's happening this year? Well, in my opinion, it's all about the weather, or lack thereof. In the past years each spring we have late March or early April rains which really bump up the river, almost blowing it out, and keeps it cool. It doesn't last long, it usually drops and returns to normal quickly. But I think that water, kind of like black top on the highway, is needed to keep traffic moving. Look at the amount of "blacktop" we have near Trenton right now.
If you look at the table you can see we've had some highs and lows and the average is around 20,000 cfs for these parts. Yesterday we are around 8,500. That is a pitiful amount of water in the system for late spring. And the few days of equator like temperatures in and around New Jersey haven't helped
things either. We got into the 90's and on a low tide without much water around water tempos crested about 60 yesterday. Now some would say 60 is fine, it fits ion the 55-65 comfort zone that striped bass love, and love to spawn in. Yes, but not a 10 degree swing up in four days. Not good. So what gets
affected? Let's talk fishing now. The American shad come up the river to spawn. They travel far. Anyone who fishes the Upper Delaware all the way up into and above Hancock will tell you of schools of shad swimming around before they die. Well, they got in while the getting was good this year. They arrive first, and had lower temps and decent flow to move upriver. Catches have been good, I'm not a
shad guy but from the reports anglers seem to be getting them, some days better than others. But those numbers are down as well and the Delaware River Basin Fish and Game Commission are implementing a 33% reduction in the harvest of American shad. Words out they may shut it down altogether in a year or so. The herring, well, the herring are here, kinda. They too move up the river to spawn and I would
think a nicer meal for most of the bass that are in the river. Could a 40 or 50 pound striped bass eat a whole 5-6 pound American shad yes. But, let's think about that. Let's think of your wife. And this is in total respect. Your wife is nine months pregnant and has one thing on her mind, "going into labor and getting this thing out of me". Now, throughout here pregnancy she's had some cravings, put on some weight, sh'e eating for two, and needs those extra calories to support all that and get her through the birthing process. Do you think that in her last week of her pregnancy she wants to belly up to the trough and swallow down a big steak, masked potatoes, and a side of broccoli? Let alone run walk
around the local fair swallowing whole a bunch of zeppoles? The striped bass, like your wife, are not feeling it!. Their stomach is smushed up into their esophagus and the wobble when they swim or walk. Now, along the way they might have a bit of a McDonald's burger and some fries, or pick up a chunked shad or a bloodworm, but on the hunt and the swallowing and digestion of big shad and herring....c'mon man. And the thing I'll say is, in regards to my theory, well let's go back to the wife, who is basically miserable, and rightfully so. You that striped bass is happy? She's miserable too. So like you wife who gets annoyed easily, and demonic, and rightfully so, so do the big female striped bass when you start throwing big noisy plugs and trolling shit past her lateral lines when she's just trying to hold in a place where's there's some water before moving along. Those are reaction strikes you sharpies.
So the above dude is the luckiest guy on the river this spring. He hit it just right, not only on this day, but several others. He had the early fish way down river, bum leg and all. Now, in my opinion, those fish will eat. They will fatten up and get some calories on board for the 100 mile trek upstream. Do you know what they use down there? They chunk said, bunker, and bloodworm balls. That's it guys.....they don't throw plugs, they don't hit shads, they eat easy to smell and swallow and digest calories. Now, again, just my opinion, up river, we just annoy the shit out of them pre-spawn and get reaction strikes, that's for both spin and the only guy throwing flies at them. But that does change. In good years when there's good water and good baits smaller fish will eat and then there's the post-spawn, both for the forage and predator fish alike. For the predators, like striped bass, it's time to put the feedbag on since your guts are now where they are supposed to be and your hungry, and able to target and digest a meal.
A few weeks ago we had a push of big, like really big fish, push in and up. Fishing was, I guess for some, good, if not great. The focus was those channels and pools and staging spots where anglers, on the right tides, time of day and moons, hammered down on 30, 40, and even 50 pound bass. And then it shut down. I saw it with my own eyes. Same bat time and same bat channel if you're old enough to know what that means. It started and stopped that quickly. The crowds were stupid. The word was out. And now those anglers, well opportunists, have retreated to the Raritan or Navesink chasing other bites, or have made the switch over to trout which has opened in NJ, Pa and NY as of late.
We see the same cycle in other natal rivers. The Chesapeake was early. The Hudson is now going strong. There are early and late fish. If you say you catch a fish today in the Delaware you might say it's a late fish, the same day in the Hudson, an early fish. With the conditions we now have in the Delaware we won't have late fish, in my opinion. No water. Bait has come, or not, and anything going forward will be a poke and a pick at post-spawn fish. There will be no lights out days of big numbers. You'll have to work for your fish, hoping that some normalcy will occur. Bait in spots where bait should be and fish, like bigger fish that eat smaller fish, will be in lanes looking to eat. Or, will they just run on an empty stomach and do the 15-20 miles per day trek out into the ocean.
For those than fish the river, like fish it, like when there's fish or not, we'll se what happens moving forward. I have been out there just about everyday, like two a days, and have been coming up short. The spin guys I have seen, and there's like four of them, haven't been catching fish in any spots other that confirm my theory. Just annoying the fish and getting reaction strikes.
They say that each year is different, and a run of a bunch of years shows a pattern. We've seen this with the switch of the striped bass's pattern the last 10 years. No more is it a surfcasters game. It's a boat fishery, say, after May. Early on, yes, the bays and rivers can come alive. Crowds, oh my. Same spots blown up spring after spring. For those that get away from the crowds there are fishy spots to have to yourself. For the fly anglers it's not that easy. Fishing, say, the Highlands bridge on a moving tide, is well, comical. Those fish are out and down and behind. So showing up to a mini crowd with a spot only for a few with your 10 weight 350 gr sinking line is, well, go do it.
Unicorns do appear. You can ask Bill Sistad who had that day of a lifetime this past spring. But for most it's a day out wading flats up to your nipples and an outing of 1,000 casts, if you can even get in between a couple of glider, mag darter, rubber shad or SP minnow chuckers. If you get on a boat you can look into the crystal ball of your electronics and sit over the fish and cast, well feed you line down hopefully into the zone, or find a fleet you can belly up to, or, if your lucky find that after everyone quits twilight birds, bass, and bunker Happy Hour party.
Soon the bigger fish will head up the Hudson and then it will be a pick of the 28-38 inch fish. Some won't make the trip so there will be fish to be had and the ones you carefully release today after "keeping them wet" will wind up on the deck in a pile in a day or so. I can't imagine what the Friday through Sunday boat traffic and kill numbers will look like these next few days. The party and charter and private boats are in full swing so all those "one for the table" anglers will be out in full effect. And then the post-spawn hungry girls and boys will arrive and who knows where they will go. will they stay in the bay chasing bunker and small baits or will they hit the now destroyed beaches along New Jersey and New England chasing bunker before hitting their summer vacation spots. Only time will tell.
Back to this spring. The last few days we have seen the air temps rise and the lack of rainfall has the brush around New Jersey dry and ready to burn, and it has, from rural to urban parts of New Jersey. We need rain, like real rain. It looks like we might get some of that much needed water from the sky this weekend. It won't do much for the rivers, but it will do good for the vegetation in and around NJ. Those early season river hotspots will see water levels drop and temps rise and those fish will head out to the bays where the volume of water to play in and water temps more of their liking. Yes, you may find that honey hole or a few stragglers, but the time for bigger water is now.
Am I correct? Who knows. And who cares. Anglers have tried to figure this game out for, well centuries. We know things change from year to year as the variables, and there's a ton, also change. so in the meantime just enjoy fishing. You can chase the reports and find the crowds or just fish and use thinking like a fish to either increase your chances of catching or as a good justification as to why you aren't catching. That seems what I do best as of late.
