I've been pretty consistent, and right sometimes, regarding my predictions of striped bass management and regulations. That goes back to the days in the early 2010's when I would stand up at the Asbury Park Fishing Club and suggest moving to catch and release only tournaments only during the January meetings "New Business" forum. Over the years I have thought of and shared my take on gear restrictions, seasonal closures, and even moving to a moratorium for the striped bass. When the ASFMC came out with the emergency action slot last year I was very vocal on why is was a bad idea. I used the example of a school. Say you didn't admit any students for two years in a row. In seven and eight years do you think there would be any students ready to walk across the stage for graduation?
Slots. Most fisheries are managed by slots. How can you expect good management if you said every fish must be 20 inches. Bluefin, fluke, redfish, and striped bass have fallen under slot limits, for both commercial and recreational fishermen. Right now there are a ton of different slots for striped bass. The species is currently under the 28-31" slot for recreational anglers. But of course New Jersey, who sucks as a state when it comes to striped bass management, think Fote and Nowalsky, has the CI (Conservation Equivalency) Bonus Tag Program in place since we abolished commercial fishing in the state in the early 1990's. And we did that scratching, clawing, and threatening legal action.
So we have 28-31", Bonus Tag 24-28", and then the commercials up and down the coast and in the Chesapeake Bay still with big fish slots. Yes, there are fish over 34 and 35 inches, like up to 60 inches, still being harvested and managed by statewide quotas, as set by the ASMFC. Remember last year when the option of transfers was introduced. Like North Carolina, which has about 500 striped bass left, would be able to transfer their quota to say, Maryland, Virginia, or Massachusetts.
So fish are being harvested, yet alone killed by catch and release and discards from 0 inches through the largest of fish which can be over 50 inches. Some for the table, others for the crabs.
During the 6-hour marathon annual ASMFC meeting last week the decision was to have a December meeting to get the ball rolling on 2025 regulations. Of course New Jersey was one of the states that was
opposed. You see the problem is this. That current slot decimated, and still is, the 2015 year class of fish. And now, with another year ahead and fish growing, the decent, but less than 2015, year class of are falling within that 28-31" slot. So what you are doing is trying to stick your finger to stop the leak but in the end the boat is going to sink anyway. It is not sustainable.
Right now, this minute, on a clear and calm to be 70 degree day anglers on boats are hammering down on that first push of big fish. Party boats stating, ".....over 200 fish caught but only one keeper". If you take fishing catch and release mortality at 10- 40" that means that every trip 20-80 of those fish die, either immediately, or soon thereafter. When they die they just don't always just go belly up and float. The acidosis has them, retreat to the bottom where they either regroup or turn sideways and croak. Now that's not to say that every head boat is catching 200 fish, but how many fish do you think will be caught in New Jersey state waters this weekend? Just look out on the horizon. Do you think all those diamond jigs or Savage lures are finding their way into the corner of the striped bass' mouths. Reeled in from 50-60 foot depths out at the 3-mile line? Or caught and reeled in in big current in or between the channels? Or the double treble plugs that are used if the bunker schools are encountered and the big fish find their way up top....
So what could 2025 look like. Well, remember this is fisheries management, which comes down to money and politics. The commercial guys are complaining, and rightfully so, that they can't make a living anymore due to the regulations. They want what they are entitled to. But I say to them, 'Hey guys, times have changed and you have to change", which can include going into another business. Imagine if a film photographer stood in protest, or the newspaper print guy, or even after the diner owner, said they
wanted things like they used to be, "When the world and times were better". You can still be a film photographer, just good luck getting film and finding a place to develop it and people to buy film prints. What about a moratorium? Like NO recreational and commercial targeting/ Forget it, the ASMFC doesn't have the guts or the balls to do it. Seasonal closures? They are in place in some places like the bays and rivers which can very from months in a row or in groups of weeks across the year. What we haven't seen are seasonal closures in the ocean.....now that may be an interesting option, but then guys will be saying, 'We're fishing for bluefish".
That leaves us with adjusting the slot. The 28-31" slot isn't good, never was. It will not be in place for 2025, and if it is it will be adjusted. It has to. But if you are protecting one class then you are hurting another. We don't have anything remotely close to being healthy, even if the SSB is now, just by a thread, not being, well, overfishing is not occurring. If we reduce the slot size to protect the 2015 and 2018 year class, then we are hammering down on the vulnerable last six year classes which have had poor recruitment. But remember, Chesapeake commercial fishermen and New Jersey Bonus Tag holders are taking fish from 18 and 24 inches respectively.
So what does that leave us? Mmmm. It leaves us with the fish that are the only hope of keeping striped bass going. The big females. Now a female striped bass is fertile around seven years old, a 28-31 fish, that we have open season on now. The big cows deliver the most eggs when and if they reproduce for that year. If you have ever held a spawning bass greater than 20 pounds then you can tell the difference between a pre and post-spawn fish. But here is the take on that. If anglers are "playing" catch and release with them anyway, and we are excepting a C & R mortality, why not just let some people keep some of those big fish sometime? Remember, those big fish are still being harvested by the commercial fishermen right now, depending on the time of year and quota. If we are always gong to figure in F, mortality, then who cares if the fish is eaten by a family or a crab, a dead fish is a dead fish.
And with all of that is my prediction for 2025. The ASMFC and the jokers on the various boards and the recreational and commercial fishermen will collective continue the shit show, aka, "kicking the can down the road". December's meeting will be a relative joke. It will be like when king Herod couldn't make a decision about Jesus' fate and sent him off to Pontius Pilate. In the end the Management Board will pull the trigger, in May, after the spring runs in the natal waters have already started or finished.
They will reduce the slot, AND, they will have some over sized fish season available. That will satiate the less than intelligent. But at the same time there will be more gear restrictions, barbless and single treble only. And they will slide in some kind of seasonal closures in new waters, such as the New York and or Rarity Bays. Remember these bays are really just an extension, or mile marker zero, of the Hudson River. If we've conceded that the Chesapeake is shot, then we'll have to protect the Hudson and Delaware River fish at all cost. But, the Chesapeake counts for 75% of the striped bass, so they, as a species, may be screwed either way.
In 2025 get ready to see poorly filleted big bass in the marina dumpsters once again. Big racks on the muddy bottom getting eaten by crabs along the ramps and docks. Pictures of mates filleting big bass and anglers with big coolers wheeling them off the head boats. That will be for one part of the year. Other times you'll see smaller bass that produce a chicken strip or two in coolers that can be carried. It's going to be a good one. Grab some popcorn and see what happens.
That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.