12.10.24 Nice way to kick off the Christmas season...

     Christmas parties are always a nice way to kick off the holiday season. Well, let's be honest, some of them are torture. But the Atlantic Saltwater Flyrooders party is always one Theresa and I look forward too. Yesterday we had a day. It started off in Newark and ended in Seaside Heights.

     The morning gathering was Cultural Day at Essex County College. It was something I started when I was a student 30 years ago and occurs at the end of every first semester right before finals. It's a day for the class to come together and celebrate each other through food. Imagine being able to eat your way around the world from food prepared by 100 people from all corners of the world. 

     It was then down the Parkway to Klee's where we'd continue the assault on our digestive tracts going from curried goat, joloff rice, sinangag, and salted fish, to pizza, wings, and a few Guinness'. As we walked across the Boulevard i felt uneasy walking into Klee's for the first since Bobby's accident. 

     While I was looking forward to seeing people from the club my heart dam near stopped when I saw Tom Fote roll in and walk past my table. It was just yesterday when I heard Fote speak at the ASMFC TC meeting and wrote about him in the blog. So I went up to him and shook his hand and said, 

 " I don't know if I like you but I want to talk to you." No matter what I think about Fote, as far as his stance and action regarding striped bass has been, he has been involved in the fisheries management game just about as long as I have been alive. He has to get respect for that from me. So I told him I really enjoyed his comments during the previous days meeting. We then talked for a while and one of my takeaways was his statement, "I have to represent everybody", which I respect. And when I questioned if there was a chance of me getting involved in the game of the ASMFC and New Jersey he asked, "Are you ready to represent those that kill bass, fish from boats, and the commercial or for hire operations that harvest?". So I get that. But I didn't get his position on keeping things status quo for 2025, which means keeping the 28-31 inch slot with no No Target or No Harvest closures. Ok, enough about that. 

     I have to say Fote threw me off my game. When I saw him I wanted to sit next to him, get shit faced, and really dig into the current striped bass drama. So, I didn't mingle and take pictures like I usually do. Brad set up and mc'd the night as he usually does as club president. Of course he had solid help from the always active members in the group. 

     These parties, like most, are centered around the food and drink, but fly rod club meetings, always, bring out those looking to score some good prizes or some cash by winning the 50/50. Theresa and I, as well as our table, may have been the high hooks as we all had the winning tickets for something. 

     For me, winning a selection of flash, which I really wanted and loaded up the cup with tickets, to another lot of saddles, to Theresa winning the Yeti cup, and Gerry and Kathy hitting the 50/50. We all did good. But the best we did was one of our table buds scored the always desired Chia Pet.

     But the big score of the night was the framed Tom Lynch photo of that Bob Popovic's cast which had about a dozen ticket holders holding their breath for. The winner was, and deservedly so, Rich Sistad, who dam near shed a tear when his number was called. Everyone in the room was glad he won. In my opinion, you'll see Rich as the next club president one day. He would be great moving the club forward and there's no one in that club who fly fishes more than Rich.

     And while I don't want to revisit a painful past there was a hole there at Klee's last night. There are fixtures in certain rooms during certain events that we all have drilled into our heads as being permanent. Bob sitting at the bar at Klee's is one of them. Either on those Monday nights when The Shady was closed or during the ASWF Christmas Party, you could always know that a trip down to the bathroom would mean stopping to talk to Bob.  

      So they say always be thankful and grateful because you just never know. Enjoy each day, and party like it's your last, and make sure you do shake a hand, give a hug, or say good by to those fixtures in your life, which really aren't going to be there forever, or at least physically. 

12.10.24 Here comes the seasonal closures....

      Well it was a very interesting meeting. Last night I listened to the nearly four hour ASMFC Technical Committee Meeting on the updated projections and recommendations for the ASMFC Management Board which meets on December 16th. There were about 100 people on the call which was a mix of the TC, TC advisory board, and the general public. I always have said that moderator Emilie Franke does a great job. 

     I can't report every inch of the meeting but some things stuck out to me. In my opinion, the ASMFC has done so much work and consideration into some sort of closures that you will see them. And I think no matter what the decision has already been made. What those closures could mean are a No Target or a No Harvest to reduce the fishery by 14%. The question would then be who would take the reduction, the commercial getting a cut into their 10%, or recs into their 90%, which is a combination of harvest and recreational catch and release mortality.

     What also stuck out at me was the ASMFC and the TC dependence on the MRIP data to support the various options they have arrived at. One thing they say is that removals for 2024 are down. Kind of. That's not including Waves 5, 6, which include the fall run numbers. How can you predict a years worth of removals without including the Captree fleets slaughter of fish and all that occurred in and around New York and New Jersey this past fall? 

     The other prediction they make is that 2025 will see a higher removal rate because the 2018 year class will fall in between the current 28-31 inch slot. So then what? 

     Then the discussion came to the point showing that moving the slot down, or up, wouldn't reduce removals or more importantly protect those years class of fish. So if I had a vibe I don't think the TC supports changing the slot size at all. So then what?

     Well, go first to who is going to take the hit? It's either the commercial or recreational sectors. Remember the commercial sector only takes 10% of the fish each year, so if you apply a 14% reduction, or as low as 8% or as high as 16%,

the percentage will be a lot less then the recreational fisheries. But remember, we don't have a quota, in pounds, like the commercials do. And if they think changing the slot will help then the only thing you can change are no target, no harvest, and seasonal closures.

     Then it got interesting because the discussion then talked about ocean vs Chesapeake Bay stuff. But what got me was, okay you're talking the ocean up and down the East Coast, and then THE BAY, meaning Chesapeake, but then what about the New York and Raritan Bay? Where would they fall? We have a two month bay and river closure in January and February, but what about if there's other closures during certain Waves? They better get this shit right. 

     Above are the predicted statistics showing what kind of reductions you would see with changes in the slot in the ocean and the CB. Remember they are looking for 14% reductions to meet the "chance" of getting to 50% in rebuilding the stock by 2029. 

    So then it went to the talk of closures. Again tons of data presentation on that. Boys, it's coming, either No Target and or No Harvest. Below you can see the breakdown. 

     Board members were then allowed to ask questions and make comments. For me Patrick Paquette from Massachusetts took the cake with a strong opinion of the need for everyone to suck it up and make sacrifices to save the striped bass. It was that good. And then behind him, drum roll please, was New Jersey's own Tom Fote. WTF? I liked what he said. He was out on No Target and No Harvest but really made sense when he talked about that the problem lies squarely on poor recruitment due to poor spawning participation, or more importantly, poor environmental conditions. Good on him. He also talked about the possibility of having a striped bass stocking program, as some states did back in the 1980's. The bass are just not getting it done. And Fote said if we don't take a fish for two years, recruitment will still be poor, and I believed what he said. Although more bass swimming is good.

     The ASMFC Management Board has the ball in their court and they will be playing on December 16th. I would suspect that you will see more comments submitted then ever. Why? Because people on all sides of the fence are plain scared. And for two reasons, one you can't fish for them, and two you can't take them, or both. 

     While I suspect that closures will occur it has to be done correctly. And that means you have a fair and equitable closure for each state, not a blanket closure over two or three states, at different times, where the fish may be more concentrated in different places and at different times. That whole Wave thing really has to be dialed in more then the charts show. 

    Below is what is being sent to the Management Board...

If you love striped bass and really want to see what happens with the management and the ASMFC most of these meetings are accessible and are very educational, and at times entertaining. There's a lot of passion, and opinion, so don't forget to submit your comments to the ASMFC by midnight tonight.

     And in an interesting time of release the NY DEC released the Hudson River YOY Survey Results for 2024. If you were thinking that the Hudson strain was going to move the ball down the field and help out the poor recruitment from the Chesapeake stock then think again. 

     It's two years of poor numbers that fall well below the geometric mean and the 25th percentile. I can't believe it took this long to release the data, and the timing with the AMFC Management Board meeting a week away is kind of suspect. The Delaware River surveys, from New Jersey and Pennsylvania haven't been released yet. If they come out this week then I know something's up. 

12.09.24 "Hey, where's my $20,000?"...

     I've been waiting now for over two weeks to see which angler brought home to the $20,000 top prize in NJ SAT (Surf Anglers Tournament) FEST which was held Sunday November 24th. Surely there was winner because there were a ton of slot sized fish up and around the Seaside Heights/ IBSP area and they said there were 13,000 anglers entering the tournament.

     As it said in the rules the winner would "have to take the test (a lie detector test) 2 weeks after the tournament is over and must comply with all of the media requirements "promotional videos" before payment is given". So any chance of keeping that bag of cash for yourself and hidden from Uncle Sam is out of the question. I mean this is is a big event even gathering support from Congressmen Jeff Van Drew and entered into the permanent Congressional record of the United States of America.

     If you paid the $185 fee, plus the $50 to drive on the beach, and you haven't seen the standings or anything aren't you a little suspect? In order for a tournament, or a drawing, to have credibility, it has to have believability. I can't believe that we haven't heard from the biggest surf anglers tournament in the United States of America. And let me tell, I know some surf casters, some of them ugly, mean, and won't take bullshit, or fraud, sitting down. 

     So let's move past the lie detector test and the two weeks after. Two weeks from November 24th would have been yesterday, December 8th. That's after all the promotional videos and press releases were sent out and the scheduling done for FOX News, MSNBC, and CBS. So that guy or girl must have got all tightened up this week with a new set of duds for their big world wind tour. And those press releases will show the winner holding up that 28-31 inch striped bass and a check, or lots of hundies, totally $20,000.

     So how do you get $20,000? If you just went by the participants top break even you'd need 108.10 participants at $185. If you told me that I had a 1/108 chance of winning $20,000 by catching a 30.75 inch bass on November 4th? I'd would have broke out the spinning rod, tied on an Ava, and casted 30,000 times over those 5 hours. It would have been worth the $185. But there were 13,000 entries, at $185 per that's $2,405,000. That's some serious business right there.

     Now the weigh ins already happened. The anglers had to weight them in on the boardwalk at Seaside Heights by 1pm on November 24th. You mean to tell me that not a single person snapped a photo or leaked that angler who came in with a 30.90 inch striped bass? C'mon man.

     You may think I'm just being a douche mentioning this but I really want to know how the tournament went down. Every year we buy tickets for the Mercedes Benz raffle at the Lady Star of the Sea Church in Cape May. We did it again this year but didn't win.

     Imagine if they set it up like this. They sell a ton of tickets. The drawing is on October 31st. But we won't announce the winner until November 14th...maybe. And you'll be subjected to a lie detector test and forced to be in videos, pamphlets, autograph signings, and an Only Fans cameo. I don't think that would go over well. 

     I went over to the NJ SAT FEST website for the two-week announcement of the winner. That was yesterday, Sunday, December 8th. If you are a participant and waiting to find out if you won I hope you're  not holding your breath, or your urine. 

And I also hope you aren't like Clark Griswold in Christmas Vacation who ordered a new pool for the family only to realize the bonus he got was a years subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club. Stay tuned. 

12.08.24 This shit's getting real now....

       Let me tell you this. When it comes to striped bass, and striped bass fishing, this December 2024 everyone is running scared. It's one of the only times where I've seen spin, fly, for-hire, commercials, tackle shop owners, and everyone in between sharing the thought that 2025 COULD be the year where drastic, and far from perfect, changes are made in the regulations regarding striped bass.

     I've seen it in the questions and statements during open mic nights following the ASMFC meetings, see it in the form letters written during the open comments, and in posts on the various social media outlets. In as way it has brought everyone together, although they are really worlds apart each with their own motivation, and selfish ones at that. Is it all about the striped bass? Like really trying to figure out how we can keep just about keep all of the fish swimming and help the species survive? Or is it I want mine, and if we can do the right thing, mostly affecting the other sectors, then I'm good with that.

     It's even getting personal. I've seen do-gooders pinned against do-gooders. I've seen people flexing their opinions based on their own take and interpretation on the science and data, which they use to bolster their own arguments. Yes, there's science involved, but there should also be common sense. You can't remain married and expect your wife or husband to allow you to have a side piece. You can't have your cake and eat it too. And that's what everyone wants. Either it's to allow you to "Keep one for the table" or "This is how I feed my family" the bottom line is everyone wants to kill, either purposefully or by accident, striped bass in any size the ASMFC will allow. 

     The Gold Standard in determining the health os striped bass has been the juvenile striped bass survey held by Maryland down in the Chesapeake Bay. Since greater than 70% of the striped bass swimming are born in the CB that's where studies are focused. Number two is the Hudson and the third is the Delaware River. The data shows that recruitment has been abysmal for years. While anglers have tunnel vision when they catch that beach blitz or go out on their buddies boat or jump on a Captree fleet head boat and see thousands of fish, that is just a small slice of the picture of the striped bass biomass. "Epic", oh please. "They're hundreds of acres of bass out in the EEZ", okay. 

      If we look at the Maryland graph we can see there's a few years where we had decent, or good, YOY (Young of the Year) returns. Some years that come to mind moving backwards, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2011, and 2007. We've all been talking about protecting the 2015 and 2018 year classes in and around the current slot. Slots can work, but not if you harvest every single fish in that class. The next class, which may be around, or not, was 2011. Those fish, according to the charts, would be > than 40 inches in length. I caught some 40+ inch fish this year, and they are around 15 years old. 

     While we have been looking to protect the next classes (2015 & 2018), that we hope will start producing the eggs of the next YOY classes, we've been hammering down on smaller (Think Jersey's Bonus Tags) and larger (Think commercial fisheries) fish up and down the East Coast. And don't forget all those big fish that died following the poor catch, mutilate, and release practices every spring and early fall. 

     

     So now everyone is using the science and data and their own math to figure out how "We can get ours". They take a fish, say 35 inches, multiply it by 1000 divide it by 4, add 6, times it by the F, add the index, and then divide it by 3, and come up with a hypothesis on why things should remain the same, or be changed, mostly for the other guy. In the end a dead striped bass, or 10,000 of them, means less fish in the biomass. While the YOY is a great starting point to look at the health of the species, it's the SSB (Spawning Striped Bass), that we need to protect. And those fish aren't, either around, or doing, like procreating, like we need them to, all in order for us to kill them. 

     I've floated the idea, since I was against the slot, that size limits would have to be changed to protect certain year classes. That either means going below, or above the current slot. who's going to get all jazzed up taking a 24 inch fish for the table? That fish, is about five years old, and just getting into their early years of being ready to reproduce. They'll reproduce, in the Chesapeake, Hudson, or Delaware, if conditions are just about perfect, and they choose to spawn. Just because you get all gussied up and head out for a night on the town doesn't mean you have getting laid on your mind. Many fish make the trip to spawn, but not every fish does. 

     If they, the ASMFC, decides to have an "over" limit, over 35, 38, 40, inches or larger, it would mean disastrous things for the striped bass. Killing more of one to save another is a lose-lose proposition, of course in my opinion. Do you want to see what we saw in the early 2010's all over again? Head boats drifting on top of large bass chasing bunker on top or sand eels along the bottom?

     Do we want to see anglers gathered at the local pinch point on the beach waiting for the big girls to push the bait in? And then dragging those fish, that they can't cary due to their weight, along the sand, wood, and asphalt, to their trucks? I don't. But it's going to happen.

      It's like ordering a pizza and then the brutes take what they want before they feed the kids. They'll then grab for the pizza cutter and slice up the two remaining slices for the kids to eat. There's just not enough to go around, and you can't just go and order more striped bass. 

      The concept of No Target and No Harvest is real this year, coupled with closures that they call "Waves". In order to have these changes work, you need anglers willing to fall in line, and have enforcement around to keep people honest, which we know doesn't happen. Recreational anglers have their wants, as do the commercials. But things change. What about the whiting and ling fisheries we used to have? I have no first hand knowledge of that but I've heard. It was a winter thing, off the beach and jetties, and from the boats. They don't exist anymore and either do those fisheries. There were head boats that depended on that fishery each year, but it was lost, and we're looking at striped bass circling the toilet and on their way to, yes, extinction, or at least a lost fishery.

     I could write about this everyday, and I've penned my opinions on this since I started this blog 15 years ago. Basically it has been the same message, "Dead striped bass equals less striped bass". You can squeeze what fish are left through whatever formula or equation you want but at the end of the day we have to stop the insanity and realize that striped bass can't give us all that we want from them. It isn't and will never be sustainable. If the ASMFC came out and said "NO FISHING" for striped bass for two years I would be okay with that. I'd go to work, find some other hobby to satiate me, and eventually drop dead. Why can't we take no for an answer these days? We expect the new generation to fall in line and play within the rules but when it affects us we lose our shit and try and manipulate things to get our way. 

The cave men used to like to hunt dinosaurs. One evolved and one didn't. 

12.07.24 This is about to get really ugly....

     Without arguing about the data and science here is a graph that was part of the 2024 Striped Bass Stock Assessment Report. It breaks down removals in millions of fish for each year since 1983. It displays both recreational and commercial numbers. Below is the written explanation for the last few years as it appears in the report, 

     So, the recreational sector, which includes the for-hire fleet, harvested 49% of the fish, 40% were killed during releases, 10% was from commercial harvest, and 0.5% were from commercial discards. That's the best science and they're going with it. 

When science and data support your position it's easy to be a believer. 

     Like many others out there I'd like to be a believer. But sometimes when I sit back and think independently I do question things from time to time. Sometimes I am left to question things because I'm not that smart, and things are above my pay, or brain grade. 

     The above ASMFC chart may be easy for you to understand but for me it takes a little time to navigate around it. Others may not choose to stick around and twist up their brains. And others just won't believe it at all. 

     Sometimes I grab onto the point rather quickly. Above is a graph showing why we should be concerned if we keep the current 28-31" slot as it will cut into the 2018 year class of fish. We just got through 2024 where we hammered down on the 2015-2017 year class fish that fell between those three inches. It's kind of hard when you are trying to protect something but allow it to be harvested.

     The MRIP, or Marine Recreational Information Program, is a program that collects and organizes data that is used by fisheries managers. In the case of the striped bass that's the ASMFC. I looked around and found some "stuff" that was interesting. The data is comprised from willing anglers who participate when approached by volunteers or sent a mailer.

     The ASMFC requires states to participate. When you are required to participate then there must be consequences if you do not. Above is New York's plea to anglers to participate. In the end the data is formulated into catch per unit effort, ie, CPUE+fish caught/ hours of unit fishing. A sample of an MRIP mailer, maybe you got one, is below. 

      In the latest round of nonsense and striped bass management they are looking into things like the number of trips taken and preliminary (predicted) removals in states during different waves (see yesterdays post) to support the theory that rebuilding may be in jeopardy 2029 if things continue as they currently are.

     An example of an MRIP chart, just showing the results of the FES (Fishing Effort Survey) would be below, for the State of Maine, during 2023. 

     That tally tells us that most of the fishing excursions done in Maine were done by shore based recreational anglers, followed by private owned boat anglers. Below is the explanation of the data collected, 

     Now I'm not questioning anything but surely someone is interested in the "effort" made from the recreational sector. Is effort the same for a boat that livelines as the other who throws barbless flies? Some of you may remember the movie "History of The World Part I". In it Mel Brooks plays Comicus, an unemployed stand up philosopher who at one point heads to the umemployment line.

     When asked what he does Comicus states, "I coalesce the vapors of human experience into a viable and meaningful comprehension", to which the Dole Office Clerk played by Bea Arthur answers, "Oh a bullshit artist". She then asks, "Did you bullshit last week?", answer "No", "Did you try to bullshit last week?", answer "Yes" before handing over that weeks unemployment. It kind of reminds me how someone stopping me on the dock might go, depending on my trust of the "system" and if I were in the mood to play along. "Did you fish over the last two months?", answer "No", but I really did. It's similar to trying to

fill out the Coast Guard form CS-719S when you try and renew your Captain's license. There they ask how many days you were out on the water within the last five years, as you need a total of 360 over five years. I put my license on hold the last go around because I couldn't honestly say I had the time as Covid shut things down for almost a year. So Mmmmmm, with pen in hand, "How many days did I go out in April, May and June in 2020 during Covid", answer "27". Yea right, let me see how I can make those numbers add up to 360. Not me, no thanks. And that's where I can see Bea Arthur asking me, "Did you bullshit last week?".  C'mon man. Questioning the data and the science, or maybe how the data is collected, yes sometimes. 

     As you can read below they get addresses from the USPS matched to the National Saltwater Registry and send out surveys. So they can catch you at the dock or in the mail. 

     I went on to read further about MRIP and how the data is collected and for what purpose. If you read into it you may start to raise a question or two, and rightfully so. 

     And while no survey or data collection type is 100% without fail, NOAA does explain quality assurance and control measures before releasing the data to fisheries managers, to say, the ASMFC. 

     But there has been some conflict with the MRIP and lots of people have questioned it. There have been studies and things like the below have been noted, 

     I have always said that fisheries management comes down to money and politics, a position I have been questioned, and cautioned, on. Do I think someone is on the take at the ASMFC? Absolutely not. Do I think the State reps, who are political appointees, have a Big Daddy to answer to? Um, yes. And if we go all the way to the top might the conversation say come across the big desk in the White House about things fishing, hunting, and the environment? Let's say possibly. Let's just go State level, do you think Murphy gets briefed on the striped bass in New Jersey? I surely do. Why? Because the people affected are constituents. They have a voice, and a vote. So yes politics is in play.

     What about money? Fishing in big business. Above is a chart from NOAA from 2020. That's a lot of moola. And with the money comes jobs. Just think of the money generated and spent in regards to striped bass. I don't know what that figure is but I know I must spend $2,000 a year on gear, gas, lodging, and trips, plus the food and the coffee alone. And that's just for just one very recreational fly fisherman. When fisheries are managed, especially for an overfished species, quotas get cut and that means the bottom line gets cut as well. Participation is down, guided trips are down, so are party boat trips, tackle shop sales, all boat related expenditures, as well as all the other things (purchased) that go along with recreational fishing. And then there's the commercial side, which I know nothing about, other than following the boats on the Deadliest Catch. Quotas, gas prices, fish and shellfish prices, etc. And when things get cut people lose money, and they don't run, they stand and yell, and fight. That's the money I'm talking about.

     When the ASMFC came out with the Emergency Action and the current 28-31 inch slot the fear was that angling participation would decrease, especially those utilizing the for-hire fleet. Now with talks of having No Target and No Harvest seasonal closures, from 27 - 60 days during different "waves", people are very concerned about the true economic impact that it would create. No Harvest doesn't affect me, but it's not all about me. No Target means I can't fish. Although, the number of anglers that targeting bluefish and banded rudder fish would expand exponentially. 

     I work in healthcare. Both at the bedside and in the classroom. Do you think money and politics rear their ugly head into patient care? You bet they do. Just look at Big Pharma. Look at the insurance companies. Now I'm just a little player in the big healthcare picture but I see how money, and even politics, affects patient care first hand. Length of stays, supplies, and even coverage for procedures and medications. It all comes down to the almighty dollar. 

     As a practitioner and educator we use evidenced-based practice to guide how we care for patients. That EBP comes from research and data. An example, everyone used to get an indwelling catheter, or Foley catheter, while in the hospital or long term care facility. Through research and statistics, they learned

that CAUTI's, or catheter associated urinary tract infections, were occurring at an alarming rate and costing billions of dollars to treat, and led to increased patient mortality, or lets say F, like with the striped bass. These days you can count the number of patients who have catheters in the hospital on one hand. That is due to good research, solid data, and solid changes in what we do. 

    So, when we look at where we are heading into 2025 with striped bass management, in order to accept change we must have near 100% confidence in the research and data. In just 24 hours I have seen social media erupt with opinions and posts of the comments sent to the ASMFC regarding "No Target" and "No Harvest". This is going to pin fishing buddy against fishing buddy, conservation group against conservation group, recs against comms, states against states, and the science and data against public opinion. In the end the only true losers will be the striped bass. I hope the science and data, and not politics and money, guide fisheries managers to do the right things. That is something I have doubts with.