Monday, January 8, 2024

01.08.24 Wrapping up my theory, for now....

     Now what goes on in my brain and in these posts are just my opinion, and some will say, "Who care's what he thinks?", and rightfully so. When I tell you I think about these fish 24/7, I ain't lyin'. I'll stick by my premise of, if you kill less fish there will be more fish. That's where the ASMFC and individual states come in. Setting regulations to rebuild the SSB numbers.

     But there are other factors, as we know, and people smarter than me have known for a long time, that contribute to low YOY recruitment and the number of bass swimming around. We have seen the shift as anglers for, say the last 10 years or so. Yes, in the 1980's you couldn't buy a bass, well you could, but catching one for fun was very, very hard. Then the fishery was rebuilt, and now history repeats itself. But was that point in the 1980's, where bass almost were decimated, due to different reasons? 

     There are a bunch  of reasons why striped bass numbers may be down, and I'll list a few, 

-  Over-harvesting, we know that
-  Environmental conditions in spawning areas (fertilizers, pollution, algae, development, runoff)
-  Water quality improvements in non-natal waters, like bays and rivers, Hey, why leave?
-  Changes in bait availability and migration changes (We can include menhaden and herring)
-  Climate changes- warmer air and water temps and milder winters, poor snow pack and runoff
-  Changes in adaptation and migration of the striped bass (Hey, they're changing the game)

     I'd like to think I think on the conservation side of striped bass. I'm not a tree hugger, well maybe a touch, I'm no Greta Thunberg, hey, where'd she go?, and I'm not all in that climate change will end the world theory. But, things have changed weather wise over the last, say 100 years, and that causes other things to change as well. When we talk about low numbers of striped bass the naysayers point to blitzes happening off the beaches in New Jersey. When you talk climate change folks they'll point to a 18" snowfall, "How's your climate change now?" Not that's a little narrow minded, you have to look at the bigger picture. Something I think we tend not to do. 

     It's always easy to look back and wish things were they way they were. I grew up in the 1980's and wish we could go back. The same could be said about the 70's and 60's, and the decade I wish I was around for, the 1950's. Cities were good, families were more intact, you could afford things, and those things were made here in the USA, and it was all before technology ruined things. That said, they weren't perfect either. Wars, racial and gender discrimination, and maybe the beginning of the downfall of the family units with things like the hippie "free love"movement, (although some would say those were their best times ever), the increase in drug availability and use, and things that came with all that like STD's and the pandemic of AIDS's. What does that have to do with striped bass? 


    Well one thing I know for sure is we had style. We just presented ourselves better. Money or no money. We had a pride and a swagger that fit into what was happening in society during any particular time period. Then we changed as the times changed, for better or for worse. So humans changed, because we chose or had to. I'll go on the limb and say back in the day, like way back as far as you have to go when they were the best they were ever, striped bass had some style and swagger of their own. But then they weren't. 

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     Striped bass have changed as well, because they had to or, well, wanted to? Let's look at menhaden, bunker, or pogies for a minute. More of them have led to more striped bass, and whales, and birds, and other predators who love these forage fish. They've changed the way striped bass move and hold, and how we fish for striped bass when they're around. Just think of the Beast Fleye's resurgence. Just think of the livelining, and the snag and drop fishing, which still happens today.

     While the Chesapeake system, the largest estuary in the United States, has been seriously harmed by man, other waters have improved and have seen an increase in water quality over the last 40 years. Think of the Passaic, Hackensack, and Raritan Bays in New Jersey. Remember when New York used to 

Jaime Frungillo photo

dump their sewer sludge/garbage in the The New York Bight, the ocean? That was a great idea, and what washed up along the shores of the bays, rivers and beaches after? Plus all of the dumping of raw sewage and outflow from chemical and industrial sites. And by ending those environmental attrociities and with water quality improvements, the striped bass, forge fish, and crustaceans, came back, and stay, and stay longer, and even winter over.......do you see where I'm going?

     Remember before the 2016 fall blitzes in New Jersey started the annual ridiculousness that occurs the last quarter of each year now? Boat guys would tell us there were "hundreds of acres" of striped bass rolling around on sand eels outside the three-mile line, none of us could see it though. That was either a fact or propaganda to ensure us that in the end we could kill more fish. But if there was any truth to it, it was that a fishes migration can and does change. Is Montauk what it used to be? Like for real? No, things change. And when one thing chnages, others will, or should change as well, including theories and thinking. 


     What has been baffling me for the last 10 years are the changes to the spring fisheries along and inside New Jersey. Those early spring days, when it was cold out, were left to the bait soakers, who could pick up a fish or two that had defrosted from wintering over in the bay. They swam around and rooted, not in big schools, but just fish swimming around. Now, it's game on with big schools of fish either hanging in the channels or moving onto the flats, competing for food, and hitting at times, anything you can throw at them. So what's up? They have changed the game, which is good for a Raritan Bay angler, but not for the bass. They should be gettin' back where they came from, down in the Chesapeake Bay getting ready to spawn. Remember, science tells up that Hudson fish only make up- 10-20% of the SSB, those are not all Hudson fish. 

     And that can be said for other bays and rivers as well. An early fish in the back of the Toms River is far, far away from the Delaware or the Hudson, so what gives? Now we know striped bass become sexually mature at say 2-6 years old. Like humans some mature early, some later. Some become sexually active early (oh Jesus I'm a parent) and some late. But what we do know is not every fish that returns to their natal river gets lucky. Remember your days going to the club. Okay, I will. A few times I went with my boys to the Jersey Shore clubs back in the 1980's. While most hooked up, males and females alike, I, well, never did, not one time. So just because I made the run, doesn't mean I got lucky, or for a bass, procreated. 

     And let me say this, and I'm not sure if striped bass are wired like I am. But I think about eating a lot more than having sex. At least as I get older. Does a striped bass that doesn't make the normal south to north to back south "normal" migration change their reproductive mojo if they winter over in waters that are warmer, are better quality, and have a rich and available food source? If they winter over somewhere, like a bear that hibernates, and then wakes up in the spring with a ton of their buds, and has all the food they want, do they pass on making that spawning run? Does that feeding drive take over that spawning drive? Hmmm. 

     We know by the science that conditions in spawning rivers have to be dam near perfect for a successful spawning year to occur. Remember last spring? It was drought like conditions with a mix of deluges of rain and flooding in and around the north east. Those were rain events. what bass need is that nice ice out and snow melt that feeds the rivers. A nice steady flow with a good mix that keeps the salt line where it needs to be otherwise the fertilized eggs just won't survive. We also need the fish to be there and conditions to be right to set the table for good spawning, viable eggs, which lead to good YOY numbers. In your searches you may see YOY results also known as JAI (Juvenile Abundance Index), as well. 


     Going from north to south, we look at the Albemarle/Roanoke fish numbers, not good, like really not good. Moving north the Chesapeake, Delaware, and Hudson, not that good as well. Is that all from over harvesting? Are warming trends "pushing" or keeping bass in northern non-traditional spawning waters? Is that why some are saying it's all about the Hudson River fish these days? I think that has something to do with it all. 

     We have evidence from the seine netting surveys done in spawning rivers that things are not good. Below is the Chesapeake numbers taken from surveys of several parts of the CB system. A look at the 
     

Hudson River numbers show poor YOY numbers as well. My questions are, 

- Are there just less fish around?
- Have the fish that are around changed their "annual" spawning runs, for whatever reason?
- Were the conditions in the natal rivers poor due to environmental reasons? Water quality, warming trends, ect. 


    New Jersey and Pennsylvania haven't released the 2023 seine survey results for the Delaware River as of yet. I would assume they would follow results as found in bot the CB and Hudson. That would just confirm that there's something going on, and it may just not be about reducing harvesting, both commercially and recreationally, which can only help. Less dead bass = more alive bass. 



    Now I don't want to get all doom and gloom about striped bass, although I could. Right now, as you read, large spawning striped bass are gearing up for the spawning season down at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Yes there are still striped bass out there. It's a tad warmer down there than here in NJ. Things as far as striped bass spawning occur a few months earlier than say up in the Raritan Bay for the Hudson River fish that are staging for their hundreds of miles run up the river. Before they go, they eat, because when they have spawning on their minds they don't eat as much, well they're not looking for food. Get one to eat a drifted eel in front of her face in the upper reaches of the CB, sure. Get one an a reaction strike from your 12 inch Donk, sure. So for some fish it's business as usual. Those are the ones we need. We also need them to educate, or round up the youngins', and get them back on track as to what they're supposed to be doing as far as their "normal" migration, start south, go north, come south, repeat. 

     And there you have it. Just an insight into my own exploration about striped bass these days. As we take sides and wage campaigns and wars against each other on who is responsible for the slide that striped bass are taking maybe there are other things we collectively learn from the striped bass themselves. And with all of that I put squarely on the striped bass shoulders, or operculum, that they may be responsible for a lot of the changes we see, and it is up to us to help protect them, while be able to enjoy them as a recreational fish, and it pains me to say, as an enjoyable meal.

      It intrigued me to learn about striped bass stocking programs that have occurred in the United States. They do it successfully for landlocked striped bass and hybrids. Now stocking I'm not meaning like trout from the Pequest Hatchery, but the repatriation of one strain to another water system. Navesink fish became California fish. Roanoke fish became Navesink fish. Hudson to the Kennebec and so on. Now you need a river system that can support striped bass, and more importantly one that can support spawning. The Kennebec is 170 miles long, but I am not sure if there are dams along the way. But it was stocked and has endured as a spawning river by the studies and science. Maybe some of those Connecticut Rivers could benefit from similar efforts. 

     Changes have happened with striped bass. We have messed with them for so long that maybe we don't deserve the privilege for them to stay around. We nearly destroyed them and then scrambled to save them. We are doing that again. History always repeats itself. And while we make changes to ourselves, they make changes to themselves. As David Bowie said in his hit song, Changes


" So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children (striped bass) that you spit on
As they try and change their worlds
They're immune to your consultations 
They're quite aware of what they're going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes"