Yesterday I stopped by local watering hole, no not a bar. I am amazed that with all the snow and rain we've had this late winter the river isn't really reflecting that. Waiting for water from the north is like waiting for those Long Island bass to show up on the Jersey beaches in the fall. You can wait and wait and they may come or not.
I found this U.S. Drought Monitor website and looked at things here in the northeast and things New Jersey. To the south in Cape May County and in and around the Chesapeake Bay things aren't looking good. Besides the risk of wildfires, like we've seen around New Jersey the last week or so, drought means less water in the rivers and bays that we fish. while some say a cold winter, like we've had, we still need solid water levels for a good striped bass spawn. Good levels keep the salt line in the Delaware River where they're supposed to be and water levels good for the fish like shad, bass, and herring to make their push up.
We can see ranges from moderate (Trenton) to severe (Salem) to extreme (Cape May). Even points north of New Jersey are seeing Abnormally Dry conditions. The below
image taken from Port Jervis, New York shows the ice pack breaking up in the river and traveling south which may add some water into the system, but it's probably not enough to really make a difference. Down near me the Delaware River has bumped up to 17,000 cfs but that will
only trend down in the next couple of days. It's not how much water crests on any day but the consistent water level over the weeks and months. As expected every spring the deluges of rain that push the river to 60,000 cfs only blows out the river and makes travel for fishes, and conditions for fishing less than optimal.
Over the next week we'll see air temps over 50 degrees, even into the 60's, with lows in the 20's and 30's at night. Warmer water is the impetus to get fish moving and the coveted 50 degree water temp for some means it's go-to time. The Raritan Bay at Keansburg is 48 degrees during the day so the bloodworm soakers should start to see fish rooting around for a spring meal.
But the springs of late have meant wind and lots of it. Living out west I see how bad the combination of days of rain followed by wind can be. It means lots of downed trees, like big ones, due to the saturated ground which makes tipping the lumber over easier. As far as fishing, and fly fishing, these winds just suck. And most of the winds seem to be coming from the northwest which for me double suck as they always seem to be on the wrong side of my body where I like to fish.
The weather over the next week looks good once Mother Nature turns off the fans, but that's not going to be until Monday. As far as fishing predictions, who knows, last year my first fish came on March 29th near home base, and in 2023 it was some fish on March 9th up north. My early prediction this year was that things would be delayed but I've changed that up a bit. I feel, even with this weather as of late, I'll be getting good fish earlier, if I can squeeze time in around my current work schedule, which is all consuming and basically 24/7 until the semester ends at the end of April.