08.28.25 What say you?....

 

     The weather was markedly different when we stepped out of Newark Airport last week. I could tell that summer had crested and fall was in the air. When we drove to the tip of New Jersey a few days later some of the trees had started to drop leaves and appeared to be fading in color. At night out here along the Delaware River it's cool and perfect windows-open sleeping weather.

     I think this winter is going to be brutal. Well, brutal may be harsh. What I do think is it's going to get colder sooner and stay colder longer. And snow? We'll get it, a storm or two that may leave up to 20 inches on the ground, but nothing big, like a blizzard. Those days seem to be over. 

     The Old Farmers Almanac (top) and the Farmers Almanac (above) put out the yearly prediction and the first says it's going to be generally mild winter, while the later says we should be prepared for a good old fashion cold and wet winter. 

     What will that mean for fishing? Well, a few things. First, fly rodders looking to put a fluke on the table should get out there while the water temps are up and the season remains open through September 25th. If you do go remember it's an 18 inch minimum with a three fish limit. Boy, if you caught the right honey hole that would make for a nice feast and plenty for the freezer. 

     If you do go and hit the beach be ready with an assortment of white bait type flies for the Spanish mackerel and false albacore that may be out there. It's also not uncommon to have a mix of bonito out there as well, although it's usually bonito or albies, as they don't play well in the sandbox together. And remember your 20 pound flouro may be too thick for those eagle eyed predators so you might have to go down to 16 or even 12. Surf candies or small epoxy flies in pink or green usually will get some notice. Inlets have been a great place if you happen to be there when they are. I have spent countless mornings waiting at the Shark River Inlet for something to pop. 

     I anticipate the door of summer to shut early and the water temps will follow suit. The bait is percolating in the bays and rivers and the predator fish, well all I care about are striped bass, will begin their runs on the flood tides was they travel up and in to intercept the bait. Then we'll have those flushes in November which will be at the height of the fall run. But before that, like now, there's holdover fish, and some good ones, that can be caught under the dock lights or are lying in wait at your favorite bridge spots. Upwelling brings the cold water into the beaches and the incoming tides push the cool water into the inlets, rivers, and bays. 

     Out near me the Delaware River is way below it's August average running now at 3,000 cfs. It's been to low and warm to fish, and I'm thankful for that, as I welcomed the break from the 

spring, where 2025 saw my most productive year since I started fishing it since 2018. It took seven years but the stars finally aligned and I hit it just right. I now know I love big (45,000 cfs +) and off color (Turbidity @ 20) water. That's as long as the bait and bass are around, and hungry. 

    Water temps have started to drop around the mid-70's after times this summer when they hit nearly 90. During warm temps I find the river unappealing to fish. The flow is off, the color is off, the smell is off. When you catch a fish it feels like they just came out of a warm bath. For smallmouths that's okay, not for striped bass. I like 55-65 degrees, as they do. 

     And what comes up must go down. In the spring the shad and herring run up and spawn, and in the fall the fry make their way down and out into the ocean. Any of those striped bass that chose to hang around, or where too timid to make their first runs, will be able and willing to feast on the Scooby snacks that small fish are. That should be going down in a few weeks and I will be out there trying to bring one to hand or for a ride in the tank.