Well it was a very interesting meeting. Last night I listened to the nearly four hour ASMFC Technical Committee Meeting on the updated projections and recommendations for the ASMFC Management Board which meets on December 16th. There were about 100 people on the call which was a mix of the TC, TC advisory board, and the general public. I always have said that moderator Emilie Franke does a great job.
I can't report every inch of the meeting but some things stuck out to me. In my opinion, the ASMFC has done so much work and consideration into some sort of closures that you will see them. And I think no matter what the decision has already been made. What those closures could mean are a No Target or a No Harvest to reduce the fishery by 14%. The question would then be who would take the reduction, the commercial getting a cut into their 10%, or recs into their 90%, which is a combination of harvest and recreational catch and release mortality.
What also stuck out at me was the ASMFC and the TC dependence on the MRIP data to support the various options they have arrived at. One thing they say is that removals for 2024 are down. Kind of. That's not including Waves 5, 6, which include the fall run numbers. How can you predict a years worth of removals without including the Captree fleets slaughter of fish and all that occurred in and around New York and New Jersey this past fall?
The other prediction they make is that 2025 will see a higher removal rate because the 2018 year class will fall in between the current 28-31 inch slot. So then what?
Then the discussion came to the point showing that moving the slot down, or up, wouldn't reduce removals or more importantly protect those years class of fish. So if I had a vibe I don't think the TC supports changing the slot size at all. So then what?
Well, go first to who is going to take the hit? It's either the commercial or recreational sectors. Remember the commercial sector only takes 10% of the fish each year, so if you apply a 14% reduction, or as low as 8% or as high as 16%,
the percentage will be a lot less then the recreational fisheries. But remember, we don't have a quota, in pounds, like the commercials do. And if they think changing the slot will help then the only thing you can change are no target, no harvest, and seasonal closures.
Then it got interesting because the discussion then talked about ocean vs Chesapeake Bay stuff. But what got me was, okay you're talking the ocean up and down the East Coast, and then THE BAY, meaning Chesapeake, but then what about the New York and Raritan Bay? Where would they fall? We have a two month bay and river closure in January and February, but what about if there's other closures during certain Waves? They better get this shit right.
Above are the predicted statistics showing what kind of reductions you would see with changes in the slot in the ocean and the CB. Remember they are looking for 14% reductions to meet the "chance" of getting to 50% in rebuilding the stock by 2029.
So then it went to the talk of closures. Again tons of data presentation on that. Boys, it's coming, either No Target and or No Harvest. Below you can see the breakdown.
Board members were then allowed to ask questions and make comments. For me Patrick Paquette from Massachusetts took the cake with a strong opinion of the need for everyone to suck it up and make sacrifices to save the striped bass. It was that good. And then behind him, drum roll please, was New Jersey's own Tom Fote. WTF? I liked what he said. He was out on No Target and No Harvest but really made sense when he talked about that the problem lies squarely on poor recruitment due to poor spawning participation, or more importantly, poor environmental conditions. Good on him. He also talked about the possibility of having a striped bass stocking program, as some states did back in the 1980's. The bass are just not getting it done. And Fote said if we don't take a fish for two years, recruitment will still be poor, and I believed what he said. Although more bass swimming is good.
The ASMFC Management Board has the ball in their court and they will be playing on December 16th. I would suspect that you will see more comments submitted then ever. Why? Because people on all sides of the fence are plain scared. And for two reasons, one you can't fish for them, and two you can't take them, or both.
While I suspect that closures will occur it has to be done correctly. And that means you have a fair and equitable closure for each state, not a blanket closure over two or three states, at different times, where the fish may be more concentrated in different places and at different times. That whole Wave thing really has to be dialed in more then the charts show.
Below is what is being sent to the Management Board...
